What Happened: The leaders of the four self-proclaimed pro-Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine's Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions declared their intention to conduct "referendums" on their regions joining the Russian Federation from Sept. 23-27, Reuters reported Sept. 20. On the same day, Russia's Duma approved adjustments to the criminal codex introducing the concepts of "mobilization," "martial law" and "wartime," imposing up to 15 years in prison for desertion and up to three years for contract soldiers refusing to deploy to Ukraine. Why It Matters: Putin will likely use the threat of annexation to attempt to revive negotiations with the West over limiting weapons supplies to Ukraine, as well as Ukraine's use of these weapons to strike the newly-annexed Russian territory. If the West does not comply with these negotiations, the Western-origin weapons that Ukraine uses in Russia's annexed territories would be striking Russia, which Moscow would claim risks direct military confrontation between Russia and the West. However, the West will likely maintain support for Kyiv and allow Ukraine to keep striking inside its own internationally recognized borders, despite Russia's purported annexations. Subsequently, the Kremlin will use the threat of continued Ukrainian attacks on Russia's annexed territories to justify partial or general mobilization measures, as well as additional strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and possibly even threats of nuclear retaliation. The fear of impending mobilization measures will spark a renewed panic in Russia and prompt an uptick in those fleeing the country, worsening the country's brain drain. Background: Putin will give a televised address to the nation on the evening of Sept. 20, followed by an address from the country's defense minister. On Sept. 19, Ukrainian forces recaptured the settlement of Bilohorivka in the Donbas, denying Russia complete control over the administrative borders of the Luhansk region. Russia's presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said as recently as Sept. 13 that there was no discussion of a nationwide mobilization to bolster the country's forces in Ukraine. Read More: |
