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Current Status as at: 19 February 2019

Outlook

Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage to rise as we head into winter. The Risk Meter is currently set to Normal status, but depending on the inflows over the next quarter this may rise to Watch, and in a worst case situation, Alert status. We are monitoring conditions closely and reviewing our assumptions to ensure we are using the most up to date information.
 
The Pohokura Gas Field outage started two weeks ago, and we understand should be finishing at the end of this week. Further work will be carried out following this outage, including 18 days of unspecified outages in March and April.  As previously mentioned, this was included in the last HRC update and there is no material impact on the HRC curves, however we anticipate it will put short term limitations on gas generation. We will continue to monitor the outage and update the curves accordingly.

Current Situation 

Aggregate New Zealand storage decreased over the last week and is at 65% of total storage, this is below the historical average (84% of average) for this time of the year.

Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 62% and 72% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 66% of total generation.

Hydro Storage Update

Controlled storage remains below average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.

Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were lower than the historical average for the time of the year and there was an decrease in North Island storage.

South Island inflows were also lower than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have also decreased.
View the latest Hydro Risk Curves  »
Read more about Hydro Storage  »

Generation Mix Update

Generation from non hydro sources are expected to remain at current levels.
Read more about Generation Mix  »

Demand Update

New Zealand electricity usage is about average for this time of the year.
Read more about Demand »

Transmission Update

There was a net HVDC energy transfer to the North Island of 63 GWh last week. 
Read more about Transmission »

Wholesale Prices Update

The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $162 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is higher than prices experienced this time last year.
Read more about Wholesale Pricing »

Data Updates

We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves.  The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
Data Last Updated
Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions 31 January 2019
Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions 11 December 2018

Next Report

The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 26 February 2019.

Transpower Website

If you have any queries, please email system.operator@transpower.co.nz.
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