Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage to rise as we head into winter. The Risk Meter is currently set to Normal status, but depending on the inflows over the next quarter this may rise to Watch, and in a worst case situation, Alert status. We are monitoring conditions closely and reviewing our assumptions to ensure we are using the most up to date information.
The Pohokura Gas Field outage started two weeks ago, and we understand should be finishing at the end of this week. Further work will be carried out following this outage, including 18 days of unspecified outages in March and April. As previously mentioned, this was included in the last HRC update and there is no material impact on the HRC curves, however we anticipate it will put short term limitations on gas generation. We will continue to monitor the outage and update the curves accordingly.