Fprop  
 
  Twitter LinkedIn
 
Fprop Snapshot
Q1 2014
 
 
 
 
Fprop Investment Property Markets
 
 
 
POLAND:
 
 
GDP forecast growth 2.9% in 2014. GDP growth in 2013: 1.6%, a trough year.
 
 
Confident outlook - PMI rose to 55.4 in Jan 2014  - strongest reading since 2011.
 
 
Despite the recent emerging market sell-off, PLN relatively stable, albeit at weaker end of its trading range over the past year of PLN 4.1/€ to 4.3/€.
 
 
Commercial property transactions up some 10% in 2013 to €2.97 billion from €2.72 billion in 2012.
 
 
Investor demand focused on prime properties of large lot sizes - prime yields are now c6%, some 25bp lower than a year ago.
 
 
Foreign Capital accounted for 92% of commercial property transactions in 2013.
 
Concerns:
 
 
Over-development (offices and retail) for current point in economic cycle.
 
 
Illiquid market for lot sizes sub €50 million.
 
 
 

 
UNITED KINGDOM:
 
 
GDP forecast growth 2.4% in 2014. GDP growth in 2013: 1.9%, strongest year since 2007.
 
 
Strong overseas demand for central London leading to increasing demand for secondary commercial property.
 
 
Commercial property transactions £53.4 billion in 2013, a six year high.
 
 
Residential – house prices rose by 8.4% in 2013, boosted by:
 

 
Help to Buy:

Phase 1 - c13,000 equity loans granted in the first 9 months of the scheme, equating to some £500 million of the £3.5 billion available. Take up accelerating.
 
Phase 2 - take up data not released yet but £12 billion of mortgage guarantees available to support £130 billion of loans.
 

 
Mortgage lending increased by 20% in 2013 to £12.4 billion, a six year high, up from £8.3 billion in 2012 and forecast to continue to rise.
 
Concerns:
 
 
Potential ill effects of overly loose monetary policy – including possible house price bubble.
 
 
General Election in 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fprop Investment Strategies - please contact Jeremy Barkes
 
 
 
POLAND:
 
 
Investment - targeting higher yielding commercial property to generate a minimum IRR & ROE of 15% p.a. (geared).
 
 
 

 
UNITED KINGDOM:
 
 
Investment - targeting well let “good secondary” commercial property to generate a minimum dividend payment of 6% p.a. (ungeared);
 
 
Development - targeting vacant/short lease office properties for conversion to residential use.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fprop Property Requirements
 
 
 
POLAND:
 
Investment Property:
 
 
Minimum 7.5%+ net initial yields;
 
 
Cities with catchments of 50,000+;
 
 
Fully or partially let offices, shopping centres, retail warehousing or mixed use/ multi-let properties;
 
 
All sectors considered;
 
 
Lot sizes of €5m+ with no ceiling. We will consider all compelling opportunities.
 
 
 

 
UNITED KINGDOM:
 
1. Investment Property:
 
 
Minimum 6.5% net initial yields;
 
 
Fully or partially let commercial or mixed use/ multi let properties;
 
 
Lot sizes > £2m;
 
 
All commercial sectors considered, anywhere in the UK.
 
2. Development Property:
 
 
Offices - vacant/ short term leases;
 
 
UK wide but ideally Greater London and the South;
 
 
Any lot size.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fprop Diary
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contact Fprop:
Twitter LinkedIn  
 
Jeremy Barkes,
Director, Business Development
 
+44 (0) 20 7340 0270
http://www.fprop.com

Richard Digby,
Analyst
 
 

Why Choose Fprop
 

find out more  
 
Disclaimer Privacy Statement © fprop 2013 Pty Ltd