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CNB Research News

Quarterly Summary  3/2020

Published jointly by the Economic Research Division and the Financial Research Division

 Our Latest Research

September 2020 – CNB WP 2/2020

Finance, Growth and (Macro)Prudential Policy: European Evidence
by Martin Hodula and Ngoc Anh Ngo

This paper examines the interactions between financial development, economic growth and prudential policy measures of banking regulation and supervision. The paper shows that active prudential policy has the potential to increase the economic benefits stemming from financial sector development.

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August 2020 – CNB RPN 1/2020

How to Organize Research in Central Banks: The Czech National Bank’s Experience

by Simona Malovaná 

This paper describes the Czech National Bank’s experience with the implementation of a new research model, which was motivated by a weakened link between research outputs and their application. The changes implemented in 2017 have helped increase the relevance of research outputs and the flexibility of the whole process.

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July 2020 – CNB WP 1/2020

Dynamics of Czech Inflation: The Role of the Trend and the Cycle

by Michal Franta and Ivan Sutóris 

This paper decomposes Czech inflation into the trend and deviations from the trend. Regression analysis is then applied to examine these two components. The results indicate a fall in the inflation trend, coinciding with changes in inflation expectations, while the transitory component exhibits features of an open-economy Phillips curve.

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All Research Publications

Hot Topics at Home and Abroad

Global Economic Outlook

September 2020 – CNB GEO

A Tale of Two Crises: An Early Comparison of Foreign Trade and Economic Activity in EU Countries

by Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková and Jan Brůha

This article compares two episodes of decline in domestic economic activity and foreign trade in EU countries: the 2008/2009 global financial crisis and the current downturn in economic activity related to the coronavirus pandemic. The results show that although the origins of the two crises are different, as is the pace and size of the economic downturn, many features are similar; the difference between the two episodes under review consists in the dynamics of foreign trade prices.
 

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August 2020 – CNB GEO

The Coal Market and Its Future

by Jan Hošek

This article focuses on coal – still a very important energy commodity – which some advanced countries are trying to phase out, due mainly to a political preference for renewable resources. For developing countries, however, coal is important not only for electricity generation, but also for the production of other energy-intensive products.
 

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July 2020 – CNB GEO

Mortgage Loan Regulation Instruments around the World

by Petr Polák and Luboš Komárek

This article presents the key principles and motives of macroprudential policy for maintaining financial stability, focusing on mortgage loan regulation. The article presents the dichotomy of opinion on setting instruments such as LTV and DSTI caps (cyclical and structural approaches) to mitigate the risks caused by excessively fast growth in house prices, and also academic evidence on the impact of these instruments on the real economy.

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All Issues of Global Economic Outlook

Thematic Articles on Financial Stability

July 2020 – CNB FS 4/2020

The Household Stress Test

by Jiří Gregor and Hana Hejlová 

This article presents the methodology of the new stress test for households with a mortgage loan, which the CNB uses to analyse the sector’s resilience. Thanks to granular data on new mortgage loans and a forward-looking approach to simulating the overall mortgage portfolio, the test has a broad application for assessing the impacts of macroeconomic scenarios and calibrating macroprudential instruments.

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July 2020 – CNB FS 3/2020

The CNB’s Approach to Releasing the Countercyclical Capital Buffer

by Libor Holub, Tomáš Konečný, Lukáš Pfeifer and Václav Brož 

This article describes the CNB’s approach to releasing the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) in two alternative scenarios of declining cyclical risks. In its decision-making, the CNB assesses whether and in what form the cyclical risks in institutions' balance sheets are declining and how that decline will affect their loss coverage capacity and available capital capacity for lending to the real economy. In a severe recession, it can be assumed with high probability that the CCyB rate will be lowered as far as zero. In a mild recession, the cyclical risks may disappear naturally without the banking sector simultaneously incurring systemic losses and the CCyB rate will probably be gradually lowered to 1%.

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All Thematic Articles on Financial Stability

Central Bank Monitoring

September 2020 – Central Bank Monitoring

This Year’s Convergence Reports and the Entry of Bulgaria and Croatia into ERM II  

by Kateřina Arnoštová 

This article discusses this year’s Convergence Reports of the ECB and the European Commission, mainly from the perspective of the recent entry of Bulgaria and Croatia into ERM II.

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All Issues of Central Bank Monitoring
— Top Articles from the cnBlog
 

How to Organize Research in Central Banks: The Czech National Bank’s Experience

by Simona Malovaná
(10 August 2020)


New CNB blog post by Director of Financial Research Division Simona Malovaná on the importance of in-house research in central banks and the CNB’s experience.

Who we are…

The CNB’s research is headed by two divisions – the Economic Research Division in the Monetary Department (left) and the Financial Research Division in the Financial Stability Department (right). 

Focus of our research

Economic research:

 — monetary policy and analysis of monetary policy transmission,
 — macroeconomic modelling,
 — the real sector and fiscal policy.
 

Financial research:

 
 developing and refining the methodology for stress testing the sectors of the financial system,
 
 developing instruments for identifying and quantifying hidden systemic risks,
 
 analysing the transmission of macroprudential and microprudential instruments,
 
 understanding the interactions between macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies.
CNB’s Research
— Upcoming Events

1–2 October 2020
4th Annual Workshop of the ESCB Research Cluster 3 on Financial Stability, Macroprudential Regulation and Microprudential Supervision (online)
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Czech National Bank, Na Příkopě 28, 115 03 Praha 1, www.cnb.cz
 
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