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No Santa Claus Rally This December?

No Santa Claus  Rally This December?


...well, maybe not for everybody, and definitely not for the Oil or Energy Companies. Retail on the other hand, and despite recent concerns about retail weakness that were proven unfounded after the Retail Sales Report on Friday, seems to be performing on par with expectations. Lower gas prices are bound to turn up consumer spending eventually.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates U.S. retail and food services sales, for the month of November came to $448.1 billion, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month. This is just slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 0.3% for November. Total sales for the September through November 2015 period were up 1.7% from the same period in the previous year. Retail sales less autos totaled 0.4%, which exceeded the consensus estimate of 0.3%.  Retail sales less autos and gasoline totaled 0.5%, above the consensus of 0.3% and the month of October at 0.3%.

So is there a recession looming? If you look at the "Time between Recessions" historical data, the answer seems unclear. There does not seem to be a clear technical trend we could rely on. Looking at the economical indicators mainly in the US and disregarding the economical and political turmoil in the rest of the world (to the degree we can afford to) combined with the upheaval caused by the currently developing fear of new terrorism and a wild presidential election campaign stirring up fear, we feel confident to close out the year on a positive note. Acting on fear or emotions instead on reliable research never works. Cooler and smarter heads will prevail; lets see what presents 2016 is going to bring  us.

Mad Money's Cramer says: ""I don't want to be that negative. Why not? Because if the Fed gives the right statement, then this market most likely will behave like a coiled spring, and there will be tremendous regret if you decide to dump the winners in advance of a benign admonition come Wednesday afternoon".


Time between Recessions

 

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