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Leland Beatty Consulting
June 22, 2016
(512) 522-4474
Poll Shows Opportunity For Texas Democrats to Trump GOP
Trump, Corrupt State Officials Leaving Voters Uneasy
AUSTIN, TX–In a poll released today and conducted June 13-14, 2016, Texas voters are specifically rejecting Donald Trump’s lies and the corruption of State GOP elected officials.
While Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points (36.8 % - 29.7% ±3.1%) a deeper dive shows an overall unwillingness amongst Republican voters to pull the lever for a straight ticket. Republicans also make up the lions share of undecided.
998 responses were collected by live telephone calls from a random sample of Texas voters, balanced to the likely 2016 General Election turnout on June 13 and 14, 2016. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1%.  The poll was conducted by Leland Beatty, an Austin-based market research consultant with extensive experience polling Texas voters.
Below are the most important findings from today’s poll:
In Texas, Clinton Poised to Top Obama 2008 Vote; Gaining on Trump
Hillary Clinton is on track to top President Obama's 2008 44% finish in Texas.  Obama's performance in 2008 had a powerful down-ballot effect, pushing Democrats close to a majority in the Texas House of Representatives.
Trump will have significant difficulty adding to his 7 point lead (3.1% margin of error). Undecided voters were significantly concerned about their place in the economy and about the honesty and character of the candidates.
Undecided voters are also very fond of former President George W Bush.  Bush, together with most of his family, has declared he will not support Trump.
Economy and Corruption of Elected Officials Top Texan’s concerns; Immigration Barely Registers
By a 3 to 1 margin, Texas voters believe state government corruption is a real problem. Two-thirds of Trump supporters believe that corruption in Texas state government is a real problem.  Among the rest of Texas voters, 81% believe that state government corruption is a real problem, and 51% believe corruption is widespread throughout Texas government. 
Because of continuing legal action and law enforcement investigations against incumbent Republican office holders, corruption concerns are certain to create a significant drag on the Republican ballot.
A quarter of undecided voters are most concerned about the economy, and the improving economy is likely to aid Clinton's appeal to voters.
Only 7% of undecided voters (2% of the total vote) identified immigration as their primary issue. Trump and other Statewide Republicans are well outside of the mainstream on their immigration positions.
Trump Lies and Hush Money Scandals Bringing Down GOP Vote
Trump's seemingly pathological problem with the truth is undercutting his potential among undecided voters.  1 out of 4 self-identified Republicans are, so far, refusing to support Trump. 80% of those feel favorably toward former President George W. Bush, and 40% expressed concern about the honesty of the candidates.  If Democrats successfully connect Trump's truth troubles with voter's concerns about corrupt state elected officials, a Democratic resurgence is almost guaranteed.  
The fact that many Republican elected officials have used taxpayer dollars to pay hush money to avoid personal lawsuits has the potential to cover the entire Republican ticket in perceived corruption.
Republican Straight Ticket Voters at Low Tide; Voters Suspicious of Statewide Leaders

Over half (52%) of self-identified Republicans say they may vote for candidates not on the Republican ballot. 27% of self-identified Republicans say they may not even vote Republican at the top of the ticket, because of their doubts about Trump.
Because so many self-identified Republicans have deep doubts about their own candidates, Republican straight ticket voting could fall in Texas to its lowest level since Republicans became the majority party—and that same doubt could bring a sooner than expected end to Republican dominance in Texas.
Click here to download the Beatty poll results
Leland Beatty works with businesses, political and non-profit organizations, and governmental entities to provide predictive analytics consulting and best practices. He is recognized as a subject matter expert and has conducted extensive research on voting behaviors including minority participation in Texas, Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin, including study of the impact of photo identification requirements on the voting age population and on registered voters.
Beatty earned a Bachelor of Arts in Literature, History and Art at Columbia University in New York. Beatty holds a M.B.A. from the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin.
Copyright © 2016 The Rivas Group, All rights reserved. 

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