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Weekly Update sent on 4 May 2022
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Latest Full report available here

Summary

Security of Supply

National storage levels continue to bounce around the 90th percentile of the historical range off the back of small inflow events, with national storage at 82% for the time of year. Those small inflow events have continued to help out the Southland region, in particular with storage continuing to hold above the main operating range.

The Maui full production shut down is expected to start on the 10th of May, where Maui is the largest gas field in the country. This has been well signaled to the market via the Gas Industry company website. We expect to see an increase in national gas production once Maui returns.

NIWA has issued their monthly seasonal outlook, which indicates La Niña will continue to have a strong presence over our weather patterns with a risk of a third La Niña climate event in a row. La Niña typically leads to below average inflows.

Weekly Demand

Demand was 731GWh this week compared with 719GWh the week prior, also reflecting a public holiday and mild weather. Looking ahead we expect demand to start to rise week-on-week as temperatures cool and daylight hours get shorter.

The new Transmission Pricing Methodology has been approved by the Electricity Authority. This removes a strong incentive on distributors to manage load over the peak demand periods and could result in peak demand being 300MW higher. More on this was published last year here.

Generation Mix

Thermal generation continues to make up a large part of the generation mix at 130GWh and hydro 415GWh. This reflects below average hydrology.

Wind was light last week, down 25GWh compared to the week prior.

Weekly Prices

Prices remained relatively high this week in part due to low wind generation. The average price at Haywards was $207/MWh, a 9.6% increase from $189MWh last week. Prices peaked on Tuesday 26 March at 8:00am.

There was minimal price separation throughout the week.

HVDC

HVDC was more northward this week, in part due to low North Island wind generation.

Go to Security of Supply web page

Next Report

The next scheduled Market Operations weekly report is due Tuesday 10 May 2022.

Transpower Website

If you have any queries, please email system.operator@transpower.co.nz.
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