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We enjoy studying forecast data, especially around topics where there is no consensus and widely differing interpretations of the data. The impact of AI and robotics on labor markets is a great example - you can find credible professional forecasters who project virtually every possible scenario.

The optimistic view is that these technologies will create new opportunities, more jobs, and make us all more productive with a net positive effect on labor markets. The pessimistic view is that robots are going to take all human jobs and we will need to create a universal basic income for the large number people who won’t be able to work because the robots will have all the jobs. 

Our goal is not to add yet another forecast into the mix. Rather, we wanted to bring all of the forecast data together in an integrated environment so that our customers can work directly with it to draw their own conclusions. You can interact with the linked datasets in our latest analysis. Be wary of bold and mutually-contradictory proclamations (on any topic) - the truth is in the data. 

Enjoy this week’s digest - China growth is down, US energy exports are up, and more. 

 

New Blog Post:

How Technology Affects Employment

Stunning technological advances in robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) are being reported on a daily basis. Fears abound, however, that this industrial revolution might displace more jobs than it creates and significantly disrupt society. These fears have fed some fantastic headlines about robots coming for our jobs. Though these kinds of fears ride on every major wave of technological change, things really might be different this time. In this article - the first of two installments on the topic - we’ll focus on two questions: How does automation affect labor markets, and how significant is the AI revolution?

Read The Blog
 

Global Implications of Brexit

If all goes as planned, March 29, 2019, will go down in history as the day the UK divorced the EU, this despite the UK parliament overwhelmingly rejecting the Brexit deal agreed on November 14, 2018, between Brussels and UK Prime Minister Theresa May. In a drawn out, tightly coordinated exit process, dire consequences in terms of international trade, financial, and even tourism flows can be mitigated. But, what if instead Brexit triggers a domino effect on the global economy because either there is a “no-deal Brexit”—the United Kingdom exits the EU without an official withdrawal agreement—or Brexit moves forward but later than planned? In this dashboard, we highlight a few examples of consequences for the United States, traditionally one of the United Kingdom’s strongest allies and economic partners.

View Dashboard



Insights Around the Web

In 2018 global automotive industry production and sales declined 4.2 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, which is viewed as another sign of a weakening Chinese economy. MarkLines

A global report co-chaired by Auckland University Health Professor Boyd Swinburn said climate change and obesity are inexplicably linked. As waistlines expand so does consumer demand for more food, which leads to an increase in food production, transportation, and waste. All of these activities produce additional emissions. The Lancet

The United States should become a net energy exporter in 2020 and remain so throughout the projection period to 2050 as a result of large increases in estimated crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production coupled with slow growth in U.S. energy consumption. EIA

The global economy is changing as global value chains are becoming more knowledge-intensive. Low-skill labor is becoming less important as a factor of production. Contrary to popular perception, only about 18 percent of global goods trade is now driven by labor-cost arbitrage. McKinsey​


New Data In Knoema
This dataset provides details on global economic growth forecasted by the World Bank. The World Bank says the global economy is expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2019, whereas the IMF has forecasted 3.5 percent growth for the same period. The dataset will help economists understand the impact of trade tension, financial stress, and investment on economic growth in emerging and developed economies at group and individual economy levels. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) from IMF has also been provided here for comparison purposes. This dataset ranges 2016-2021.
This dataset provides export and import value of the U.S. Aerospace and Defense industry. The industry generated $143 billion USD worth of exports in the Aerospace and Defense (A&D) sector in 2017. Over the past five years, A&D exports have grown by 26 percent. The dataset also has statistics on imports and exports by military and non-military sectors with line item detail. The dataset ranges from 2005 to 2017.
This dataset focuses on the container market of the shipping industry. This market has grown over the past three years and it has helped to recover freight rates considerably. The dataset will help you to understand different types of freight market with their respective rates. The dataset ranges from 2007 to 2018.
Onward.

Bret Boyd
CEO, Knoema

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