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CCNet 22/10/13

NASA Announces New Record Growth Of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

IPCC's Climate Models Predicted Melting





 


Quite astonishingly, Antarctic sea ice has set another record for maximum extent, beating the previous record of 19.513 million sq km, set on 21st September this year. What makes the new record so astonishing is that it was set in October, on the 1st. Climatologically, the maximum extent is reached on 22nd September, so it is most unusual for the ice still to be growing 10 days later. Global sea ice area is also above normal, as it has been for much of the year. --Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 19 October 2013

 
 
 


Whenever the ice at the North and South Pole is mentioned, it is mostly in the context of melting triggered by global warming. However, the sea ice in Antarctica - in contrast to that in the Arctic - has proved to be remarkably robust. New measurements have now confirmed that. As the U.S. space agency NASA announced, the sea ice in the Antarctic has extended over an area of ​​19.47 million square meters at the end of September. That is the highest since measurements began in 1979. Why the white splendour is extending there while it is rapidly disappearing in the Arctic is a mystery. --Spiegel Online 21 October 2013
 
 
 

A recent paper in the Journal of Climate finds that most climate models erroneously predict that Antarctic sea ice extent decreased over the past 30 years, which "differs markedly from that observed."  Antarctic sea ice has confounded the models by instead increasing over the satellite era. In fact, it is currently at a record extent that is more than 2 standard deviations above the 1979-2000 average. The authors lament, "The negative [Antarctic sea ice] trends in most of the model runs over 1979 - 2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly." --The Hockey Schtick, 18 September 2013
 
 
 
 
There have been many forecasts in the news in recent years predicting more and more extreme weather-related events in the US, but for 2013 that prediction has been way off the mark. Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that weather-related disasters in the US are all way down this year compared to recent years and, in some cases, down to historically low levels. --SI Weather News, 18 October 2013
 
 
 
It is well established that both the Atlantic Multidecadal & the Pacific Decadal Oscillations affect global temperatures. According to NOAA, the AMO alternatively obscures and exaggerates global warming. The PDO has now turned cold, and, with the AMO still in its warm phase, temperatures are flatlining. It is likely that the AMO will remain in warm mode for another 10 years or so, but by the mid 2020’s we are likely to see both great ocean patterns stuck together in their cold phases well into the 2030’s. When they do, will we see a similar drop in global temperatures such as we did in the 1970’s? I would not bet against it. --Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 21 October 2013
 
 
 
Germany’s green energy transition threatens to become a financial disaster for many communities, according to the assessment of North Rhine-Westphalia’s Finance Minister Garrelt Duin. In an interview, the Labour (SPD) minister warned the Ruhr region in particular faces dramatic consequences.  According to Duin cities will have to “make spending cuts in a way that is unparalleled.” In discussions with administrators he noticed “great panic”. --Rheinische Post, 21 October 2013
 
 
 
Censorship of skeptic global warming views by the press has been going on for many years. This week, Paul Thornton, letters editor for the Los Angeles Times announced the paper will “no longer publish letters from climate change deniers.”  Is this kind of censorship good public-service policy for the Los Angeles Times? It is a good policy for the global warming alarmist movement because those who are more knowledgeable about climate change are more likely to dismiss the alarm as unfounded. It is not so good for citizens who would otherwise benefit from the freedom to make up their own minds after being exposed to different arguments and diverse evidence. --J. Scott Armstrong, Fox News, 18 October 2013
 
 
 
1) Antarctic Ice Sets New All Time Record - Not A Lot Of People Know That, 19 October 2013

2) NASA Announces New Record Growth Of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent - Spiegel Online 21 October 2013

3) Will We See A Drop In Global Temperatures When The PDO & AMO Go Cold Together? - Not A Lot Of People Know That, 21 October 2013

4) Reality Check: Minimal Extreme Weather Events In The US This Year - SI Weather News, 18 October 2013

5) J Scott Armstrong: The Rise Of Climate Censorship - Fox News, 18 October 2013
 

 



1) NASA Announces New Record Growth Of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
Spiegel Online 21 October 2013

Researchers have measured a new record for sea-ice extent in the Antarctic. Why the white splendour is extending there while it is rapidly disappearing in the Arctic is a mystery.



Antarktis: Die Ausdehnung des Meereises (weiß) hat am 22. September einen Rekord erreicht. Die gelbe Linie zeigt den Median der Jahre 1981 bis 2000. Schelfeis ist grau dargestellt.
Antarctica: The extent of sea ice (white) reached a record on 22 September. The yellow line shows the median of 1981 to 2000. Ice shelf is shown in gray.

In late September 2013, the ice surrounding Antarctica reached its annual winter maximum and set a new record. Sea ice extended over 19.47 million square kilometers (7.51 million square miles) of the Southern Ocean. The previous record of 19.44 million square kilometers was set in September 2012.
 
Whenever the ice at the North and South Pole is mentioned, it is mostly in the context of melting triggered by global warming. However, the sea ice in Antarctica - in contrast to that in the Arctic - has proved to be remarkably robust. New measurements have now confirmed that. As the U.S. space agency NASA announced, the sea ice in the Antarctic has extended over an area of ​​19.47 million square meters at the end of September. That is the highest since measurements began in 1979.

The result is based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) on board of the Japanese satellite "GCOM-W1". “The winter maximum has been a record for on the second consecutive year" said Walt Meier, a meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. However, he stressed that it is by no means a rapid growth: The now measured maximum extent is only 3.6 percent above the average maximum extent of 1981 to 2010. "This year, the ice edge extends therefore only 35 kilometres further out to sea than in an average year," Meier said.

Moreover, the mere extent of sea ice does not necessarily say something about the volume of the ice, because that also depends on the thickness of the frozen layer. And the vast majority of the Antarctic ice mass is located on the Antarctic continent - and there the ice has decreased in recent years as a whole, particularly in West Antarctica.

But why the sea ice is increasing is a mystery. Scientists suspect that a change in the air currents could explain to a great extent the increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. Other speculations are that ocean currents carry cooler surface water to the Antarctic or that the melting water, which flows through massive channels in the ice, decreases the temperature of the surface sea water.

Translation Philipp Mueller

Spiegel Online, 21 October 2013
 



2) Antarctic Ice Sets New All Time Record
Not A Lot Of People Know That, 19 October 2013

Paul Homewood

Quite astonishingly, Antarctic sea ice has set another record for maximum extent, beating the previous record of 19.513 million sq km, set on 21st September this year.
 

What makes the new record so astonishing is that it was set in October, on the 1st.

Climatologically, the maximum extent is reached on 22nd September, so it is most unusual for the ice still to be growing 10 days later.


As at the 18th October, extent is still running at 998,000 sq km above normal.
With the Arctic ice running at 728,000sq km below normal, this means that global sea ice is 270,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 norm. 

Global sea ice area is also above normal, as it has been for much of the year. 
 



 

In late September 2013, the ice surrounding Antarctica reached its annual winter maximum and set a new record. Sea ice extended over 19.47 million square kilometers (7.51 million square miles) of the Southern Ocean. The previous record of 19.44 million square kilometers was set in September 2012.




3) Will We See A Drop In Global Temperatures When The PDO & AMO Go Cold Together?
Not A Lot Of People Know That, 21 October 2013

Paul Homewood

It is well established that both the Atlantic Multidecadal & the Pacific Decadal Oscillations affect global temperatures. According to NOAA, the AMO alternatively obscures and exaggerates global warming.
 
 

faq_fig2
The solid blue curve shows the observed northern Hemisphere temperatures and the dashed blue curve is a smoothed version. The red curve is the temperature history for a model that responds to the external forcing of greenhouse gases and solar variability but not to natural climate variations. The blue alternations about the red curve represent the natural AMO oscillations. When the AMO decreases, as from 1950 to 1975, global warming may appear to be reversed. When the AMO increases, as from 1975 to the present, the global warming (red) is exaggerated. 

And Roy Spencer tells us:

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is an internal switch between two slightly different circulation patterns that occurs every 30 years or so in the North Pacific Ocean. It was originally described in 1997 in the context of salmon production. It has a positive (warm) phase that tends to warm the land masses of the Northern Hemisphere, as well as a negative (cool) phase.
 
PDO-index-since-1900
 

Things get particularly interesting though, when you put the two cycles together, as below.
 
image
 
 
 
* In the 1930’s, both PDO and AMO warm phases come together.

* Both cold phases come together in the 1960’s and 70’s, the time of the “ice age scares”.

* And, the warm phases come together again for about 10 years from the mid 1990’s, when we saw the last spike in temperatures. 

The PDO has now turned cold, and, with the AMO still in its warm phase, temperatures are flatlining.

It is likely that the AMO will remain in warm mode for another 10 years or so, but by the mid 2020’s we are likely to see both great ocean patterns stuck together in their cold phases well into the 2030’s.

When they do, will we see a similar drop in global temperatures such as we did in the 1970’s? I would not bet against it.
 
 

4) Reality Check: Minimal Extreme Weather Events In The US This Year
SI Weather News, 18 October 2013

There have been many forecasts in the news in recent years predicting more and more extreme weather-related events in the US, but for 2013 that prediction has been way off the mark.

Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that weather-related disasters in the US are all way down this year compared to recent years and, in some cases, down to historically low levels.

Tornadoes
To begin with, the number of tornadoes in the US this year is on pace to be the lowest total since 2000 and it may turn out to be the lowest total in several decades. The table below lists the number of tornadoes in the US for this year (through 10/17) and also for each year going back to 2000.

(Source: NOAA, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html)

Year         # of Tornadoes
2013                    771
2012                   1119
2011                   1894
2010                   1543
2009                   1305
2008                   1685
2007                   1102
2006                   1117
2005                   1262
2004                   1820
2003                   1374
2002                    938
2001                   1219
2000                   1072

Wildfires
Second, the number of wildfires across the US so far this year is on pace to be the lowest it has been in the past ten years and the acreage involved is at the second lowest level in that same time period (table below).

(Source: National Interagency Fire Center; http://www.nifc.gov/)

2013            Fires: 40,306           Acres: 4,152,390
2012            Fires: 67,774           Acres: 9,326,238
2011            Fires: 74,126           Acres: 8,711,367
2010            Fires: 62,471           Acres: 3,233,461
2009            Fires: 78,792           Acres: 5,921,786
2008            Fires: 80,094           Acres: 5,254,109
2007            Fires: 85,822           Acres: 9,321,326
2006            Fires: 96,358           Acres: 9,871,939
2005            Fires: 66,552           Acres: 8,686,753
2004            Fires: 63,608           Acres: 8,097,880
*2013 data through 10/16


Hurricanes
Finally, as far as hurricanes are concerned and keeping in mind that the season isn’t over yet, there have been only two hurricanes so far this year in the Atlantic Basin (Humberto and Ingrid) and they were both short-lived and weak category 1 storms.

Full story
 



5) J Scott Armstrong: The Rise Of Climate Censorship
Fox News, 18 October 2013


 

 
This week, Paul Thornton, letters editor for the Los Angeles Times announced the paper will “no longer publish letters from climate change deniers.”  Is such censorship good business for newspapers and other mass media? Given that most people in the U.S. do not believe that there is a global warming problem, this seems doubtful.

Censorship of skeptic global warming views by the press has been going on for many years. This week, Paul Thornton, letters editor for the Los Angeles Times announced the paper will “no longer publish letters from climate change deniers.” 

Thornton says, “Simply put, I do my best to keep errors of fact off the letters page; when one does run, a correction is published. … Saying ‘there’s no sign humans have caused climate change’ is not stating an opinion, it’s asserting a factual inaccuracy.”

Really? Is this kind of censorship good public-service policy for the Los Angeles Times?

It is a good policy for the global warming alarmist movement because those who are more knowledgeable about climate change are more likely to dismiss the alarm as unfounded.

It is not so good for citizens who would otherwise benefit from the freedom to make up their own minds after being exposed to different arguments and diverse evidence.

Is such censorship good business for newspapers and other mass media? Given that most people in the U.S. do not believe that there is a global warming problem, this seems doubtful.
One-sided coverage loses readers who do not share the editorial viewpoint.

Aristotle suggested that persuasiveness is higher when both sides of an issue are presented.
Later research found that Aristotle’s suggestion only works when one can rebut the other side.

Failing that, it is best to try to prevent the other side from being heard.

If persuasion is the goal, and not science, then it is sensible for the warming alarmists to avoid two-sided discussions.

In our study of situations that are analogous to the current alarm over global warming, Kesten Green and I identified 26 earlier movements based on scenarios of manmade disaster (including the global cooling alarm in the 1960s). None of them were based on scientific forecasts. And yet, governments imposed costly policies in response to 23 of them.

In no case did the forecast of major harm come true.

Will it be different this time?

Isn’t it important for the public to be informed about scientific evidence on the issue? And because the alarm is based on the fear of future harm, shouldn’t the public insist on scientific forecasts?

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